It seems that COVID pandemic created nice conditions for the speculation on financial markets to flourish. I understand the allure of making money without any work, but the benefits never managed to outweigh reservations I hold against speculating in any form (gabling, lottery, financial instruments). Here they are:
- Non-repeatability of gain (if made). Gain is product of circumstances that I can neither affect nor predict (in short - luck). Non-repeatable event's don't improve my belief that my wealth will further increase in the future. This has two consequences:
- Because belief in increase of my future wealth is large predictor of my happiness today, such one-time gain wouldn't make me any happier (after the initial excitement subdues).
- Because improved lifestyle (e.g. new and better experiences) is only possible with belief in increase of wealth in the future, this won't improve my lifestyle. The reason is simple. Even if I have a lot of money but don't believe in increase in the future, I will be afraid to spend it on experiences, because their value is unrecoverable. What I figure most people that make money this way do is buy expensive cars, real estate, art, jewellery etc. This way they are not spending money but merely transforming it's shape. They can always sell their house. Sure, they might lose some value, but most of it will be retained. What such people rarely do is spend money on expensive trips or other experiences (e.g. visiting space, climbing 8.000m mountains, flying supersonic, driving with a rally car driver, drinking expensive champagne, dining in expensive restaurants, enjoying best hotels etc.), because they can never trade their experiences for money. Sure, to some extent they do spend money on such experiences, but people with belief in increased future wealth spend for such experiences much sooner, with much less money on their bank accounts.
- Distraction. Not only would I keep checking the value of my assets when in long position. I am sure I would keep checking their value even after liquidation. This would prevent me from doing the work on matters I can impact - my skills, my relationships or just enjoy my free time without my mind wondering about the asset value.
Moreover, if I found myself speculating I would perceive it as a failure of my character. Why? It would mean that I gave up on myself. That I no longer believe that I on my own can increase wealth enough to be happy. I can't imagine how terrible every day would look like. I would wake up, totally miserable because I have no control over my happiness, and the only thing that would keep me breathing would be a belief in luck.